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Macro Outlook (July 2025)

  • rezahariri
  • Aug 5
  • 1 min read
ree

Interest rate policy remains tight: The Fed and ECB aim to anchor inflation without triggering a recession. GDP is expected to grow moderately through 2027, with inflation trending lower—driven by falling rent, transport, and healthcare costs.[RM1] 


Soft landing ahead: While recession signals like labor softness and housing weakness may emerge, outright GDP contraction is unlikely.[RM2] 


Low-impact policies: Tariffs and immigration measures are not expected to materially affect the macro picture. However, lower public spending and trimmed social benefits will shape the fiscal landscape.


 [RM1]Do you agree that healthcare costs will decline? I would have thought they will increase…..

 [RM2]The UK just contracted for the second month  in a row...will others follow?

 
 
 

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